India vs Pakistan - Who Would Win (Military Comparison 2020)

    India vs Pakistan - Who Would Win (Military Comparison 2020)

It's the conflict that many have called a

possible prelude to World War III, and one

that has already played out multiple times

over the last 70 years.

India versus Pakistan, a clash of powers that

if both sides committed fully to, would be

the largest armed conflict since World War

II.

But which side really has the upper hand,

and what would a conflict end up looking like

between these two intense rivals?

India and Pakistan's relationship is a rocky

one to say the least, with both sides feuding

against the other ever since Britain pulled

out of the region after World War II and created

the two separate states.

All matter of border and culture conflicts

resulted in a neighborhood commonly called

the most dangerous in the world- a potential

conflict zone more likely to result in all-out

war than even the borders between NATO and

Russia, or even China and Taiwan.

Historically, Pakistan has suffered repeated

defeats in its wars against India, though

it has also achieved key strategic smaller

scale victories amongst the no-mans-land that

borders the two nations.

In the early 2000s, a new security partnership

with the United States made many Indians nervous,

as it was believed such a partnership might

lead to an influx of American military equipment

and training, greatly improving the capabilities

of the Pakistani military.

Soon though American intelligence officials

realized that Pakistan was double-dealing

them, aiding Taliban forces in Afghanistan

and even sheltering them from American strikes.

Pakistan never had any interest in the Taliban

being ousted from Afghanistan, despite taking

hundreds of millions of dollars from the US

for its cooperation.

For Pakistan, the Taliban was a vital strategic

the buffer between itself and Iran- who hated

the Taliban.

It quickly became clear that the US and Pakistan

would not become close partners after all,

and instead of a growing relationship between

the US and India, the world's most powerful

democracy and the world's largest democracy,

put Pakistan on the backfoot.

Now the nation relies on its arsenal of nuclear

weapons to fend off Indian forces, and continues

to finance and aid terrorists to strike against

Indian targets across the border.

For its part, India's patience is running

incredibly thin, and one more attack such

as that in Mumbai in 2008, which was coordinated

by Pakistani intelligence, will almost certainly

lead to a swift and overwhelming Indian response.

In case of war, Indian forces are over twice

as large as Pakistan's, with a military made

up of 1.444 million personnel vs 654,000.

India's reservist pool is also much larger,

with 2.1 million reservists able to be called

up quickly into active service vs Pakistan's

550,000.

However, India's much larger size vs Pakistan's

means that Indian reservists will take longer

to call up, equip, and mobilize to the front

lines vs Pakistan, so Pakistani reservists

will almost certainly beat India's own to

the front lines.

This will put incredible pressure on India's

active-duty forces at the onset of war.

India's defense budget is about six times

larger than Pakistan's, with 61 billion versus

11 billion.

This allows India to operate far more mechanized

forces than Pakistan, which only operates

about 2 mechanized infantry divisions.

The difference is also in equipment though,

with India fielding overwhelmingly more modern

equipment than Pakistan.

India's air force is also much larger than

the Pakistani air force, with 2,123 aircraft

versus Pakistan's 1,372.

India's fighter fleet numbers at 538 aircraft

vs Pakistan's 356, although in any conflict

Pakistan will almost certainly be fighting

defensively.

This would allow Pakistan's air artillery

to help neutralize some of that numerical

the disadvantage, and in a defensive war India's

a larger number of superiority will actually put

it roughly on par with Pakistan's fighter

fleets once losses and denial from air artillery

is accounted for.

Where India truly holds the advantage though

is in its fleet of 260 Sukhoi Su-30s, an extremely

capable Russian fighter who's only real competition

on the Pakistani side is the American-made

F-16.

While a modern F-16 is more than a match for

a Su-30, not many of Pakistan's F-16s are

fully modernized.

To make matters worse, Pakistan only fields

76 of them.

Most of the Pakistani air force is made of

Chinese or joint Chinese-Pakistani fighters,

and Chinese fighter designs are generally

accepted as being inferior to either Russian

or American designs.

In the air, India will definitely hold the

advantage.

India fields a transport fleet that's 5 times

greater than Pakistan's own fleet, with 250

various transport aircraft versus Pakistan's

49.

Backed up with a helicopter fleet that's twice

the size of Pakistan's, with 722 helicopters

versus 346, India has a crucial advantage

in air mobility that Pakistan can't match.

This will make the movement of heavy equipment

and infantry through the mountainous north-west

border of India possible, and while easily

defended, will favor an Indian offensive in

the region.

Air transport though will matter little to

Pakistan, as it will be fighting a defensive

war hoping to bleed Indian forces, trading

territory for casualties until the Pakistani

the army can counter-attack.

Still, the lack of mobility will mean Pakistani

forces in the mountainous north will suffer

greatly and likely be inevitably defeated.

One area that Pakistan outshines India in

is attack helicopters, with Pakistan operating

56 American Vietnam-era cobras versus a fleet

of 23 Indian attack helicopters.

Pakistan would likely choose to use these

in the mountainous north, as they will make

supporting its forces in the difficult terrain

much easier.

If India does not properly equip its mountain

infantry with man-portable air artillery,

it could face serious casualties as Pakistani

attack helos provide close air support.

India's own fleet is so small it will have

limited to no utility, being easy fodder for

Pakistan's own air artillery.

Both nations, however, have so few attack helicopters

that their air fleets will become depleted

due to casualties and equipment breakdowns

within the first week or two of serious fighting.

The bulk of the fighting between the two nations

will happen on land, and this means that the

a most important element of either nation's

the military will be its main battle tank fleet.

Here again, India outnumbers Pakistan nearly

two to one, with 4,292 tanks versus Pakistan's

2,200.

Both nation's tanks vary in modernity, but

both nation's tanks are mostly very capable

platforms.

India's main tank is the Soviet-built T-72,

with modern upgrades.

Until Desert Storm, analysts feared that the

T-72 would be a formidable threat to the American

Abrams and the British Challenger.

The short but intense war, however, showed that

T-72s were all but utterly obsolete versus

Abrams or Challengers, scoring not a single

kill in the entire conflict while American

and British tanks decimated hundreds in return.

Luckily, India won't be facing off against

an Abrams of Challenger in a war with Pakistan,

as Pakistan's main battle tank is the Chinese

made Type-59.

Basically a copy of Soviet design, the Type-59

could not hope to cope with modern tanks,

performing even worse than a T-72 against

modern American or British armor, but it could

still pose a threat to India's T-72s.

On the whole, though, India's tank forces would

outperform Pakistan's own, and the ground

the war would almost certainly go to India in

a pitched battle.

India's own artillery forces also greatly

outnumber Pakistan's, with over 4,000 artillery

versus Pakistan's 1,226.

This includes 266 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems

versus Pakistan's 100, giving India far greater

fire support capabilities than Pakistan.

However, because Pakistan has the defensive

advantage, its smaller numbers would initially

not matter much in the first few weeks of

the conflict.

Once India was fully mobilized, however, the

the overwhelming pressure of so much combat equipment

would inevitably break Pakistan's back- unless

the nation could score decisive victories

with bold counter-attacks and push into India

itself.

India's navy is also far more powerful than

Pakistan's navy, with 285 vessels versus Pakistan's

100.

This includes one Indian aircraft carrier,

with Pakistan fielding zero.

The ability to project air power out at sea

would make it suicidal for Pakistan to seek

a naval confrontation with India, and Pakistan's

own ships would likely fight a defensive war

close to shore and not venture into the Indian

ocean at all.

With zero destroyers versus India's 10, and

8 submarines versus India's 16, Pakistan doesn't

have a hope of winning a naval war.

So how would a war play out between the two

nations?

Who would win?

India's inability to respond properly to the

2008 Mumbai terror attacks led to it completely

rethinking its war strategy against Pakistan.

The terror attacks were quickly traced back

to the Pakistan intelligence services, who

had trained and equipped the terrorists, but

the Indian military was unable to respond

quickly enough to punish Pakistan for the

attack without taking massive casualties.

That's because by the time the link was discovered,

Pakistani forces had already moved into defensive

positions along the border with India.

To prevent this from happening again, India

focused on a warfighting concept it is calling

Cold Start.

The aim of Cold Start is to rapidly mobilize

border forces to push into Pakistan and deny

advantageous defensive positions to the Pakistani

military, in effect, opening up a corridor

for follow-on Indian forces to pour through.

The most important aspect of Cold Start though

is to move rapidly enough and deep enough

to Pakistan's territory that it will deter

the nation from using its tactical nuclear

weapons arsenal against the Indian military.

Currently, India operates under a strict no-first-strike

policy, and will only use nuclear weapons

in retaliation.

Pakistan, however, understands that it is the

inferior power to India, and thus maintains

a defensive first-strike policy, meaning that

it will use nuclear weapons in a defensive

matter to fend off the superior Indian

military.

India's goal, therefore, is to push deep enough

into Pakistan that it will deter the nation

from using nuclear weapons on its own soil.

This also means taking a limited number of

objectives rather than going for a decapitation

strike and eliminating Pakistani leadership.

Given the technological and numerological

the superiority of the Indian military, it is

more than capable of carrying this strategy

out- at least on paper.

While India has plenty of experience fighting

against Pakistan, it has never executed such

a massive offensive and it is unknown if it

has the experience, expertise, and equipment

to pull off such a massive logistics-dependent

operation.

If Cold Start were to fail, it would be a

strategic disaster for the Indian military,

as it would leave Indian forces bunched up

on the border and at the mercy of Pakistani

nuclear strikes.

Of course, that would inevitably invite a nuclear

response from India, further escalating the

conflict.

If Cold Start succeeds though, Pakistan would

be all but neutralized, and forced to come

to the peace table under India's terms.

Removing nuclear weapons from the equation

only makes an Indian victory even more certain,

and it's sure that without Pakistan resorting

to large-scale use of nuclear weapons, it

cannot hope to stand against India's military.

With few friends on the international stage

thanks to its sponsorship of terrorism, Pakistan

is also unable to call upon powerful friends

to help it in case of war- although China

might perhaps be interested in responding

to Pakistan's call for aid.

Given China's antagonistic relationship with

India, and the fact that India sits right

on China's jugular in terms of trade routes

that pass through the Indian ocean, China

has a lot to gain from a military defeat and

the weakening of India.

A Chinese intervention however would almost

certainly draw an American one, coming to

the defense of a strong international partner

and fellow democracy.

This would spiral the conflict from a regional

one, to a full-blown major theater war.

While the end result would still almost certainly

be a combined Indian-American victory, India's

the military would be hard-pressed to pursue offensive

objectives in Pakistan and hold off Chinese

forces long enough for America to respond.

Luckily, there is little favorable terrain

for a major ground offensive from China into

India, or vice-versa, so India would have

plenty of time to hold off Chinese assaults

until American forces put pressure on China

from the Pacific.

In a stand-up one-on-one war though, there's

no doubt that India would win any conflict

with Pakistan.